I keep returning to the Ukraine war and the connected tensions between hegemon and challenger because I think there is something very important happening here, something which is not yet readily understood or easily anticipated, but which is nevertheless taking shape as a matter of consequence, and one would be well-served to take stock of it.
Much of the day to day coverage on the war has focused on the ebbs and flows of the conventional warfare side of it, with many commentators trying to make sense of what each side is trying to do in that light, and tallying up the corresponding ups and downs of each side. Fortunately there are more astute analyses coming out from various corners of the Internet that offer more nuanced observations, particularly on the economic side of the conflict.
In terms of what Russia has been doing, there does seem to be an assortment of head-scratching failures in intelligence and leadership and tactics...as far as conventional standards are concerned. But they're also up to something that is quite different if one is looking at both the conventional warfare and the economic warfare as an integrated unit, especially if one is comparing the Ukraine invasion with the Iraq invasion for example.
Let's keep in mind that economic warfare has been around for as long as conventional warfare; we just don't talk about it as vividly as the conventional side. Siege warfare in the ancient world for example had a far greater proportion of economic dimensionality to it: forming blockades and cutting off access to water and farmland and starving out holdouts and the like, which is often what it took to crack an early urban military power.
Further, since the World Wars, we haven't had a number of great powers to compare in terms of war-making tendencies; the US as hegemon has been the only game in town, with the other substantial powers possibly engaging in smaller brushfire wars of their own, keeping the lid on in the course of those conflicts.
As an aside, we should also keep in mind that a combination of industrial wealth and available potential energy for modern weapons - read nukes - has helped to put a lid on kinetic total war for now, though the perpetual process of imperial domination has been sublimated to the economic realm, and continues apace there just fine. You get better at what you do repeatedly, and the greater powers have been less active in large scale warfare and more active in economic maneuvering for the last century.
And so what is Russia up to given the conventional and economic intersection of war making? The attacks on electrical infrastructure have been especially striking. Destruction of electrical infrastructure is nothing new: modern militaries are well versed in the importance of electrical infrastructure as a critical military target for a modern nation. You take out the electricity, and you cause serious havoc on many levels.
What is notable is how this is actually being done in Ukraine. As we can recall, the US went after the electrical infrastructure in Iraq, but they did it indiscriminately, and ended up with a completely dysfunctional nation to rebuild. This was a pattern repeated on a fractal level: the general instinct was to pulverize everything with overwhelming power, including the Iraqi military and civil service, and then attempt to substitute your own shitty and equally dysfunctional market facades into the vacuum. That does destroy your enemy's ability to resist, but then if you are in the business of nation building and exploiting that conquered nation, you have to deal with a smoldering pile of rubble that is dysfunctional for those that live there, and so the government and economy collapse and the people turn on you as a result.
This of course mirrors the financialized economic nature of hegemon, and the sprawling wasteful nature of its infrastructure, and the vast expanse of abused allies and subjects. The hegemon had too much surplus to play with, and so its economic regime is about laying waste to the surplus, which turns into cannibalization when the hegemon is done skimming off the cream. And then all of that energy wasted in daily operation - read vast suburban sprawls, supply chains, and industrial agriculture relying on cheap oil inputs - begins to bite when energy sources contract, and it is too late to retool the infrastructure to respond. And then all of the memory of that abused trust in foreign relations begins to translate to increasing distrust, breaking bonds, and shifting alliances. It is the generalized result of possessing too much energy and too much power for too long.
What Russia is doing with the electrical infrastructure is quite different and worth observing, and let's repeat here that it doesn't have to necessarily succeed in order to have a profound effect on the future shape of geopolitical struggle. Russia has been more discriminating in its targets, going for the connecting infrastructure between systems that are providing generating capacity, such as the transformers and balancing stations, leaving the generating bulk of it intact, but also making the system dysfunctional and unusable as a whole without completely destroying it.
What this tactic would eventually achieve - let's say theoretically; we've developed the argument by now that wars, and especially wars on this scale, are quite messy and get chaotic quick - is to serve as a source of leverage: you agree to satisfy our military and geopolitical goals, we help you rebuild your electrical infrastructure, which is wholly necessary for modern industry, heating and water, communication, and etc. The way in which the modern industrial world has developed - which forces that development onto participants globally due to the totalizing land, energy, and resource usage requirements - requires electricity as part of its engine and also part of its Achilles heel.
In a greater geopolitical sense, this tactic only really makes sense because of the Soviet-era nature of Ukrainian electrical infrastructure, with their electrical equipment configured for Russian-made systems, which was quite a long time in the making. This chokes off the supply side of the infrastructure repair, and it would take years and years to completely reconfigure the system to favor Western-aligned manufacturing capacity, which itself is already showing serious problems, as infrastructure experts have long been talking about the precarity of sectors like transformer manufacturing, which is threatened with concentrated and distant supply chains.
As others have observed, this not only puts serious pressure on Ukraine - legitimacy conferred by a warm, secure, fed, hydrated, and generally functional citizenry - but also on neighboring European allies as well, and their economic partners, to absorb the refugees and the multitude of economic costs incurred by the advancing conflict. As the world system bifurcates into separate power blocs, one of the overriding questions for each bloc will be: can you provide that sprawling suite of modern powers, abilities, and comforts that contemporary developed nations have come to expect and even require? And how to deprive one's rivals from doing so, in order to weaken their legitimacy, and by extension, their strength and geopolitical threat?
That Russian leadership has now shown a fuller hand in prosecuting this war - as opposed to staying quiet and biding their time as was the usual in the last two decades or more - speaks to the weakness and stability of the Western-led industrial world. Another industrial personality is taking form, and it is only a matter of time before China begins to supercharge that expression when it is forced to show its own hand more fully, as it is drawn in to the greater conflict.
The system is turning on itself, which is further eating into the incredibly complex, interconnected, and energy intensive fabric of modern industrial reproduction, and this at a time when it was already starting to be crushed soda can-like by the turning climate and general resource and ecological crisis. These global transformations would take centuries to fully express themselves, if centuries were left for the extravagance of unfettered industrial development.