Ok this is going to take longer form, so please bear with me. This could have been a multi-part series, and as usual a single post blew up on me, but in this case I tried to power through and get everything out in one continuous piece. Let's get at it then.
There is an elusive level of competence you can observe that
acts globally in an empire, a competence that is so wide-ranging and complex
that it is probably impossible to produce deliberately, but which must
necessarily emerge in a long and brutal evolutionary process of rising and
falling powers. It is a competence that paradoxically becomes ever more visible
as it disappears, as an empire’s vitality wanes and it becomes more and more
difficult carrying out what was largely taken for granted in its peak. And
there may be a series of increasingly frequent high profile catastrophes that
really drive the existence of that incompetence home in those who, half asleep,
failed to pick up on the slower incremental changes. Legitimacy is further
eroded or even destroyed with these events, all the more so with the greater
visibility of events to a greater number, producing a new broad consensus,
leading to the probability of greater antagonisms and catastrophes, and so on.
There has been a lot of thoughtful writing – and for good
reason – on the institutional and individual effects of this loss of global
competence. I’ve written a good deal myself before on ruling class hubris,
creation and destruction of legitimacy, rise in priority of propaganda, and so
on. There is a whole lot there and all sorts of interesting avenues to take in
pursuit of useful insights. This time, I don’t have a whole lot to add to that suite, but I
did want to do a brief comparative analysis of two great military catastrophes:
one in the distant past and one unraveling today. Both catastrophes, it could be
said, were more visible indications of a relation of imperial health, which
like individual human health, is an elusive quality that nevertheless becomes
more tangible and apparent with failure, to repeat the opening observation
about global competence in empire.
Global competence or imperial health is naturally a
difficult quality to describe, especially because the quality itself changes
the conditions that it is acting in, and eventually its operation can bring
about its own disintegration. And boy, as has probably become apparent, I do like difficult things, chewing on them over and over and seeing what more can be wrung out from them. And then perhaps biting off too much, and then seeing about how to get out of that in turn. Anyway, we’ll use some of the comparative details of
these catastrophes I have in mind to attempt to pin the tail on this moving
donkey and see about drawing some conclusions.
Both catastrophes I’ve written about before. To address the first: that
spectacular Gothic uprising in the Roman Empire in the 300's AD. The basic details are as follows: a very large Goth tribe reached the
Empire’s walls after being pushed west by the invading Hun tribes, and pleaded
for refuge within the Empire’s bounds. The Romans let the Gothic tribe in,
botched their settling and their accommodation, exploited them to hell and made
them ever more miserable and desperate, and they finally revolted and rampaged
through the Empire’s lands for some 6 years.
Now, to say the Romans "botched" the thing is a vast oversimplification, just as to call an empire "competent" is as well, and we can dispel some of that by digging in further. There were doubtless numerous conflicting interests from different authorities in letting the Goths in, but one of those interests was simply manpower: the Empire was spread thin and committed to conflict with the Sasanian Empire, and after protracted conflict and a series of other degradations, soldiers were badly needed, especially "cheap" ones. It had long been the practice of drawing low-cost and effective soldier power from the German tribes, as they were hardened by their lifestyle and accepted lower standards of living.
At play here too is space and socioeconomic organization: the Roman Empire covered a massive reach of land and within that Empire was a coherent polity wielding an ethnocentrism of its own, that was undergoing its own path of socioeconomic evolution consistently across its subjects. There was limited space and opportunity for the Goths to settle, and extreme prejudice in a polity that itself was in a state of desperation and disintegration. This prejudice and antagonism was centuries in the making, with one culmination all the way back in 9 AD with the disastrous (for the Romans) Battle of the Teutoburg Forest, in which a group of Roman legions was destroyed by an alliance of Gothic tribes carrying out a coordinated rebellion in response to Roman domination.
Back to 376 AD, the huge asylum-seeking Gothic group was not settled properly - they were not broken up and assimilated - and there was not enough manpower available to vet all of the different weapons and separate out the potential soldiers for absorption, and all along the journey their food was stolen and sold by officers, and in their desperation they were exploited by enterprising Romans themselves in desperate and selfish struggle for resources, given the general state of the Empire in that historical period.
The Goths rebelled, and their rebellion continuously grew as additional Gothic tribes joined, as well as Gothic Roman soldiers who were on the fence but were regarded with suspicion and even attacked, and who were forced to join. Not only Goths, but slaves, prisoners, and miners would join as well, picking up weapons and supplies as the rebellion picked up steam, and their military threat was not able to be directly addressed for years. And this disaster would have a profound effect on the course of the Empire from that point on.
So fast forward to today. The contemporaneous catastrophe I have in mind to compare is
none other than the Ukraine war. The more the Ukraine conflict goes on and the
more we learn about the conflict as more events unfold that we can observe, and
the more I think about the modern history of the Russian empire, the more this comparison
seems apt.
The roots of the conflict go deep and are quite complex, but the superficial (and I think largely correct) structural factors that led to the conflict had to do with the disastrous set of diplomatic and economic maneuvers that helped usher the Soviet Union from its catastrophic collapse to a cornered and humiliated power, which the West and the US in particular have a lot to answer for.
The collapse of the Soviet Union was essentially a gift to the hegemonic US on a silver platter: the downed rival was ready to completely restructure its political and economic systems (relatively bloodlessly) and was seeking to integrate economically within the Western capitalist system. The US could have done what it had successfully done in the past with rival and/or allied powers such as Germany, Japan, and South Korea and extended aid, technology transfers, and capital investment in the interest of integration and assimilation.
Instead an increasingly senile and disconnected US foreign policy saw fit to continue on the Cold War indefinitely, breaking and humiliating the already prostrate Russia, and with the help of favored Russian oligarchs and the West's own financiers and economic fundamentalist policy advisors, ventriloquize the Russian state through Yeltsin, effectively dismembering and privatizing the public sphere and plunging the Russian people into desperate poverty, while at the same time perpetually expanding a newly obsolete NATO, which far from a serious military alliance, had transformed into an engine of economic accumulation for its defense contractor controllers, which in effect surrounded Russia with military threats.
The expansion of NATO and the economic integration of many previous Soviet satellite countries was not simply a neutral process of conversion either. Increasingly during and after the formal Cold War era, the US had a tendency to exploit ever more intensely its conquered subjects and its own allies, leading to a trail of broken states and an increasingly unstable world order, so that when it did come time for Russia to finally openly revolt - culminating in the invasion of Ukraine - the countervailing Western world order was too unstable and weakened to properly contain the conflict. As Russia fought ferociously for its own national survival - a survival which, let's be clear, involves the right to exploit and dominate others in concert with its allies so as to match Western power - the conflict and the greater realignment of the world order itself spiraled away from US and the greater West's control, and which now is a serious threat to Western power, and which continues to unfold now.
I'd like to quickly get out of the way some possible objections to this overall framing. Much of the conventional discourse around the conflict is highly contentious and contradictory, and much of it a product of highly motivated reasoning, so I won't bother addressing it here. But the best possible objection I can think of is that to prioritize the actions of the US in shaping and directing the conflict is ethnocentric and patronizing, among other things, and that Russia has interests, motivations, and responsibilities of its own - as well as the rest of Eastern Europe - and positing the United States at the center driving the conflict is a serious distortion.
I am sympathetic of the argument and largely agree, but I also think there is (or was) a clear power imbalance between the powers - an imbalance that is gradually shifting as global power realigns and which is important to the overall analysis - and that this imbalance has to be accounted for in terms of our current purposes, and which will affect the conclusions we have to draw at the end.
And also that comparing Russia with the Goths is a category error, and that these are very different societies with different histories and trajectories in different distinct periods, which is also true. But then it is not my aim to achieve a precise comparative analysis of the parties involved, but to draw comparisons between human social systems at work and in a similar relation to each other, so as to abstract away a set of principles in common to reason further from.
Further, I think I've stressed this before but I want to reiterate: comparisons like these are not part of an attempt to locate a precise temporal or qualitative assessment of the state of decline of our own society, in relation to where Rome was at with the benefit of hindsight. Doing this is difficult if not impossible, ever more so when we consider the radical difference (albeit with striking similarities as well) of the internal composition of our society with the Roman Empire, as well as the difference in global composition of multiple societies interacting with each other in these distinct historical moments we're describing.
We would also have to talk about what makes up civilization and empire within it. For example, Rome proper would last 1000 years or so, before breaking in half with the Byzantine Empire - which thought of itself as Roman - going on for another 1000 years (what counts as Rome then?), whereas you had the young Arab caliphates explode onto the scene with astonishing rapidity and vigor, conducting a conquest with unprecedented expansion - much of it through black plague ravaged lands - and then cycling through and burning out within a consistently shorter timeframe.
But then what of that process made up empire, and further out, civilization? And each process occurs on a specific and contingent historical plane. And then you had a historian like Spengler who felt that the development of the Aztecs was cut short by the European conquests, and so on. Today, we have the lifespan of Western civilization set against real constraints of the mounting climate crisis, a set of conditions themselves thousands of years in the making. Perhaps you could come up with an average and a general tendency, but that wasn't the aim of this post, and I don't really want to get into that at this time.
What I did want to do is draw some very general conclusions on the comparison and by extension, offer some thoughts on thinking about the global competence of empire and what it effects as it unfolds.
So then what do we have here? In both catastrophes we have at their center a relentless process of exploitation, in which a "decadent" power takes advantage of a vulnerable rival power or at least a military threat, a threat which was initially much less pronounced, but which was quickly amplified as the exploited power became roused by necessity to fight for its life, eventually becoming more than the dominant power can handle.
This is really oversimplifying things, but we have what is typically called a "decadent" power - and I want to get into the idea of decadence sometime in more detail; there is a lot to unpack there - which is usually a hegemonic power which partially by virtue of its having too much power, is far too used to full spectrum dominance and the resulting deference, and which has grown accustomed to picking and winning fights, and the concomitant unidirectional flow of wealth from those victories in various forms of exploitation and appropriation.
And what comes with an extended period of unearned wealth and deference is a gradual atrophy of discipline and skill and general competence. The incompetent hegemonic power then is wrecked at a rate accelerated from its baseline process of hegemonic dissipation, as it draws in weaker powers to its voracious maw, weaker powers that do actually have to work and fight for their survival, and who eventually become strong enough to do serious damage out of necessity to their existential foes.
We are starting to have something here. But as alluded to in the Roman example, competence itself has a seriously complicating effect on our landscape. The competent imperial power has a tendency to continuously expand, transforming the landscape at greater and greater scales in service to its own localized aims, extending out the domain of its control, denying ever more space to rivals and other autonomous societies. It is often the point at which its power and reach are highest that its mastery peaks, and steadily its hold slips as its presence and its responsibility are seemingly at their most omniscient.
At a smaller scale, this is very similar to the problem of economic monopoly. An economic power like a corporate conglomerate might be very good at what it does initially, earning a seemingly deserved dominant economic position, but it also has a constant tendency to expand and diversify beyond its natural boundaries. When you control a certain expanse in strict accordance with your own central aims, there is a tendency of that expanse to drift from its own autonomous operation and regeneration, and towards a requirement of constant attention and control. Its own internal life processes have been subverted from the outside, and cut off from its own organic initiative and subject to outside sanction by a greater power, it grows apathetic, awaiting direction and signal from the outside, and its fortunes rise and fall with the strength of the outer directing power.
As a monopoly grows too large and unwieldy, it begins to fail in its manifold duties, and is universally hated by its subjects due to its simultaneously requiring its unconditional governance across the entire landscape, while at the same time increasingly becoming dysfunctional and unable to effectively govern, so that its domain falls into ruin and perpetual instability, which threatened and exploited rivals and powers are all too willing to exploit, both taking advantage of growing vulnerability and the sympathies and support of internally exploited subjects of the monopoly or empire.
A global competence of this scale and complexity then is, unsurprisingly, not cut and dry. The genesis of competence and incompetence bleed into each other and are difficult to disentangle. Plenty more directions and avenues to take from this analysis. But that is more than enough for now.