So we covered a lot of dense ground surveying the material implications of the Iran war, but we still don't have a complete picture of the underlying motivations of the combatants in the conflict. This aspect of the conflict is important, as it tells us what is actually impelling the advancing material conditions of the crisis, and can provide clues as to where it may go.
Unfortunately motivations are notoriously difficult to suss out. Getting into the heads of individuals requires those individuals volunteering their motivations, if they even understand their own motivations clearly. With powerful people, that is even more difficult for obvious reasons. And then you have to make sense of institutional and then whole state motivations as all of those layered individual motivations interact and add up, which Aurelien has been writing about.
Unless you're personally in the middle of these power centers and experiencing things personally, you are getting all of your information from various media, some of which is high quality and the rest of which is garbage. So this tends to dilute - or at least complicate - the predictive power of gauging motivations.
What we can do here is come up with a composite based on the ongoing progression of events, hungrily clutching the good data like Gollum's Precious, taking into account historical trajectories and structural tendencies, simplifying the movements of these large organizational forms into personalities with certain characters, whose behaviors can be guessed at and speculated upon.
That means veering back into the esoteric, and getting into an ontology of the respective motivating impulses of the main combatants in the war.
In our initial discussion we talked about Iran's point of view and their motivations in the initial phase of the war: they've been cornered and are in an existential struggle to carve out a more acceptable state of geopolitical security for themselves, which necessitates a utilization of what leverage they have. This is straightforward: they've been repeatedly attacked, their state threatened on an existential level, and their leadership has been fairly clear and consistent in their communication of their intentions.
But we didn't get too much into motivations of the actual aggressors who started the war, that is, the US and Israel, which I think are a little more difficult to get a handle on, because their motivations appear to be so confused, contradictory, and poorly realized when one pulls together the bulk of their media statements, as well as past and present actions and behaviors.
On their face, these motivations seem fairly straightforward too: Israel has long considered Iran as a major threat to its power in the region, and not long after the previous 12 day war, they thought they saw weakness and a vanishing opportunity, and made the decision to strike again.
The United States has a set of aims that are largely in alignment, along with some historical grievances to nurse, and made the decision to back Israel and preemptively strike with them. But then if you start to pick apart these motivations and the wavering actions on the ground, things start to fall apart.
In terms of the US, we've been subjected to a never-ending carousel of changing motivations communicated in the press: we were engaging in a pre-emptive strike to back up Israel; no, wait, we were destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities and ballistic missiles that were supposedly annihilated in the previous 12 day war; no, wait, we were conducting regime change. Nevermind that there were no serious or coherent plans for any of that.
And you look at Iran's overly cautious behavior in the years leading up to this war, and their willingness to compromise in negotiations that were then willfully scuttled and abused by the US. You look at the telegraphed fireworks shows in the form of airstrikes, and then the requests for cease fire in the backend, both in the 12 day war and the current war, and you get this strange sense that the US both cares and doesn't care about whatever result may come about.
The rogue attack dog off-leash air that Israel gives off makes a little more sense, but not by much. It was them tapping out before the end of the 12 day war after all, as their interceptor defenses were wearing thin and more Iranian missiles and drones were getting through and doing more damage. Have they not been paying attention to the whole US "emptying its cupboards" thing to supply powers like them with munitions to carry on their genocide, in addition to supplying proxy powers like Ukraine?
It is here that I want to get into a more esoteric ontological discussion of these motivations, assisted by some great recent higher-level discussions on the Trillbilly Worker's Party podcast.
What the guys at TWP explore in conversation is the basic structure and nature of the twin motivations of the attacking force in the Iran war. To engage once again in canine metaphor, we do seem to have the "tail wagging the dog" issue in which we have Israel's immediate interests driving the conflict. But to take the tail wag metaphor one step further, it is still the dog itself that is supplying that blood and tissue, which makes the wagging possible.
Israel has long been a Western colonial project, in which the West (aided by Eastern Europe) exported one of its particularly thorny religious and cultural hang-ups, which went necrotic in the course of the World Wars and needed to be excised. The West and its Eastern European allies accomplished this by injecting its persecuted Jewish radicals into a territory opened up by the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire, and then the West proceeded to lean on that territory ever more heavily as a foothold in the Middle East, after Iran turned against them, and it is this project now being rejected as Israel attempts to clear the territory for its own apartheid state.
For Israel, the genocide, and their systematic and aggressive posture of sowing chaos and destruction in the region has turned them into a pariah, and now there is no way out but through, which it has attempted to accomplish by tugging at the skirts of a mythologized United States. But for their patron the US, this vision of religious zealotry and apocalyptic destruction seems to be the last compelling geopolitical vision to get behind, as there is nothing left to offer the world but to rain destruction and sow chaos.
And it is the US' constant flows of aid and munitions which keep Israel running and fighting. At the same time, historical colonial investments have bequeathed Israel with a flourishing tech and surveillance sector, allowing it to export surveillance products trained on the subjugation of the Palestinian people, providing a valuable service and know-how to Western powers struggling with the same basic problem: how to manage populations that you can no longer offer anything to. This is a problem growing around the world too.
It is easy enough to pick on the Trump administration, which takes this logic to an exaggerated end, but the US has had decades of developments towards this end. After decades of neoliberal policy and disintegration, concentration of wealth, and the systematic destruction of genuine alternatives, the US no longer knows what it is or what it stands for, and as such, is clueless as to what it can actually offer. Bored and struck dumb after decades of hegemonic power, where else is there to go or what else is there to do?
There has been a lot of talk of nihilism when speaking about the motivations and actions on the part of the powerful in the United States. But what kind of nihilism are we talking about exactly? We often operate off of this mixed conception of nihilism where one believes in nothing, but then there is also often an element of destruction that is present at the same time. What is going on here?
After all, if you genuinely believed in nothing, it could be a conceivable outcome that you simply collapse on the floor and refuse to move, perishing right there. Because what really matters? No, where is this consistent element of destruction coming from?
Thinking about the psychology of power, you have this basic problem: you've come into your power through control of the helm. To let go of the helm is to let go of the basis of your power, and with the concentration of power, and the intoxicating and stupefying effects of great and sustained power, even the clear demonstration of incompetence and mismanagement is not enough to break that grasp, so the only way out is through knocking down any possible challenger or rival, sowing chaos, and spreading destruction.
This nihilistic destruction then appears as the natural terminus of that imperialist bid at the unceasing discharge of absolute power. Without a vessel to contain and regulate it, all of that undisciplined power flows outward, and disperses.
We hear that Iran is in existential struggle, and that does appear to be true. But I think there could very well be an existential struggle in the West that mirrors it. Only, the locus of that Western existential struggle is concentrated in the individual, or at least in smaller groups, as opposed to some larger organized body struggling to survive, which could conceivably accelerate dissolution as greater and greater pressure is put upon individuals or small groups at odds with one another, after coming into contact with a larger organized body in existential struggle. In our case in the West, individuals may survive indeed, but whatever it was that we were a part of seems to be going away sooner rather than later.
It ain't over yet; there is still a ways to go and much that can happen. But squinting at this basic ontology, we may have clues as to how things might advance.