So the Iran war is going into its third day, and already so much has happened, accompanied with a flurry of commentary. I'm going to put some of the commentary I've heard together and further some secondary commentary with some more open-ended speculation, as I won't be able to keep up with facts on the ground.
Before that, in consideration of how complex and fast-moving this state of affairs is, I'm going to do something a little risky and describe something largely ineffable. Us moderns are trained to be very wary of the ineffable and the slippery for good reason, but it might be worth talking about nevertheless.
This war feels very big. What I mean by that is that I've detected a rising sense of anguish that is particularly acute in nearly everyone I've talked to about this. In somewhere like the United States that has remained untouched by total war for quite some time, you hear about various distant wars and can be completely sickened and outraged by them - and we've had plenty of that - but its not the same thing as being closer to the war itself and being in danger of directly suffering its effects, whatever form they may take. But this one feels closer in a way, on account of being so big.
In the last two decades at the very least (going back a smidge to 911 and the War on Terror), there has been one shock after another in the US, with each shock getting bigger and more frequent, with public trust and legitimacy getting weaker and weaker as a result. This is also true throughout the West. And as you get weaker, those shocks are more likely to hit, and when they hit, they hit harder. It's like riding in a car while you're sick: each bump and jostle - however minor they may be on their own - just ripple right through you, turning your stomach and making your head throb. And the West is pretty sick. Or maybe dope sick.
We know it, we've watched it. For those paying attention, we know how financialized and hollowed out and corrupt - economically, culturally, morally, and so on - the West has gotten, and at the same time, we've been watching as a country like Iran has been pushed to the brink and into the realm of existential struggle.
You may know of that rising feeling of unease and then panic as you watch someone getting pushed and pushed and you can feel a fight coming on, just before it erupts. Well and things have erupted: we have a fight and we have strikes all over the Middle East. Things could very well cool down again in a couple of days and return to a simmering unease, but it sure doesn't feel like it.
Before getting too absorbed in those feelings though, I mentioned putting together some commentary and speculating a bit, which could help corroborate some of this ineffable stuff.
Iran has been essentially cornered. Its caution, its amenability to political compromise, and its desire for stability have all been turned against it repeatedly, and it has become quite clear that the US and Israel want to strangle it, no matter what it does. But Iran is a bigger and stronger target. So it has to fight, whatever that might look like now, and its leadership does seem to be communicating this to itself.
A land invasion of Iran would be quite difficult, and is unlikely. They still face getting bombed for days on end, though from the sounds of it they have a healthier missile and drone stockpile than their foes, and possibly greater powers of production, figuring in potential support from Russia and China. They also face intelligence penetration and further assassinations, as well as some difficult diplomatic decisions to make when some of the kinetic pressure is lifted. Iran has already been dealing with these problems for quite some time though, and has had a lot of time and experience trying to account for them.
Here is what I find most interesting: one of the more powerful levers that Iran can really put its weight on is its position in the Middle East - just look at a map - which with its size and reach, puts it within striking distance of countless targets vital to the global economy, and they know it. Commentators have been pointing this out for decades.
And they're already hitting bases and airports, and other buildings where US and Israeli targets are suspected, and now they've hit some vital oil infrastructure. These strikes alone will strain economic activity throughout the region, which will ripple through the world economy as well. Iran has also effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of world oil supplies flow through.
In the West, we know how financialized and hollowed-out our portions of the world economy are; how threadbare and wound-tight they are; how thin the walls of the asset bubbles are; how flighty and craven and faithless our investors are. And we've had ongoing inflation for some time caused by numerous destructive forces in the greater economy, which intensifies these existing problems, and which would be greatly further strained by rising oil prices, climbing investment risks and interest rate hikes, strained insurance services, and the like.
Iran is in a central position to strike very sensitive, crucial organs and chokepoints of the world economy, and then with the widespread interpenetration and high visibility of Internet activity, they get nearly instant feedback of their probes.
Iran also hit targets of US and Israel allies, such as those of the Gulf states and the Europeans, who have made noises about entering the war. But the Gulf states are incredibly polarized extractive regimes that are largely unpopular. European allies like the UK, France, and Germany are not far behind them with serious political and economic problems of their own. Protests in places like Bahrain and Pakistan have already flared up, and propaganda-wise, these regimes are paying indirectly for the sins of the Israeli genocide of the Palestinians.
And the Iranians have been handed gold to make propaganda with: some of their statements have referred to their enemies as pedophiles, which is at least true for the ruling elite. The West has refused to clean house: it has allowed genocide to eat away at international law; it has allowed elite impunity to eat away at domestic law and public morality; it has allowed deep and widespread economic corruption, polarization, and deindustrialization. Try leaning on friends like that. And what is left to believe in or fight for?
And what of Russian and Chinese involvement? Besides economic, covert, and diplomatic support, it seems things have been relatively quiet, though that could change quickly. It is hard to imagine them letting Iran go without a struggle.
But information is a little easier to pass along covertly than material support. Russia has struggled with the same diplomatic problems that Iran is now facing, and has resolved that it can no longer trust a word Western diplomats say, and proceeded with its own invasion of Ukraine, steadily grinding down its military capability and surgically dismantling its infrastructure. They've been doing this for years, learning all the while.
Now that Iran is cornered, it is easy to imagine some hard conversations taking place about these lessons, considering Iran's diplomatic woes and its position to do on a larger scale to the world economy what has been done to Ukraine.
But there is a lot in the air. Considering the tight coupling and interdependency of the world economy, these could be risky moves on the part of some of the BRICS members as well. It depends on how much successful work has been done to decouple, and whether this can be isolated from the damage done to the Western sphere.
Further, Iran has political and economic woes of its own. The war could further intensify beyond anyone's imagination or endurance, or the West could yet again back off, and then we are back to this simmering critical state, waiting for another big blowout.
This is the meaning of this war feeling very "big." Historical accounts of the decline of Roman Britain come to mind, where the Romans speak of this inflection point where the isolated "barbarian" incursions suddenly became much more coordinated and strong. And with a political economy in decline at home and an increasingly unmanageable resistance against the colony abroad, there came a point where it was time to turn tail and abandon that project entirely.
